Trump out as President before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

trump-out-as-president-before-2027

Volume

6.3M

24h volume

65.8K

1w volume

826.5K

Open interest

2.6M

Liquidity

580.9K

Liquidity CLOB

580.9K

Start

Nov 5, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 5, 2025

Event ID

73969

Slug

trump-out-as-president-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "73969",
  "ticker": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "title": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-11-05T22:02:46.869817Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-11-05T22:02:46.869814Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31-c3SENQhH7Ao1.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31-c3SENQhH7Ao1.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 580866.2331,
  "volume": 6263907.997091039,
  "openInterest": 2560185.289166,
  "createdAt": "2025-11-05T19:22:28.331771Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T21:12:18.413335Z",
  "competitive": 0.8936350841134023,
  "volume24hr": 65757.808718,
  "volume1wk": 826518.3705189989,
  "volume1mo": 2029098.624359014,
  "volume1yr": 6263907.997090996,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 580866.2331,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "666861",
      "question": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
      "conditionId": "0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722",
      "slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "580834.6657",
      "startDate": "2025-11-05T21:57:19.399255Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31-c3SENQhH7Ao1.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31-c3SENQhH7Ao1.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.\n\nA sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.155\", \"0.845\"]",
      "volume": "6263945.497091039",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-11-05T19:22:29.464133Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T21:11:06.74538Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x7e95c4e517abdbaeffde2c42b79fce0234fc02f2776b25fae517bb6e0ee9f435",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 6263945.497091039,
      "liquidityNum": 580834.6657,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2025-11-05",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 65795.308718,
      "volume1wk": 826482.8605189989,
      "volume1mo": 2029136.124359014,
      "volume1yr": 6263945.497090996,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"59252515735652674747158950210016502214756531287333895140318848923768750410355\", \"2849827372590072151380088930233312280478318575453624773762283369907909283027\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 65795.308718,
      "volume1wkClob": 826482.8605189989,
      "volume1moClob": 2029136.124359014,
      "volume1yrClob": 6263945.497090996,
      "volumeClob": 6263945.497091039,
      "liquidityClob": 580834.6657,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-05T21:56:57Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8936350841134023,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "42146",
          "conditionId": "0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 10,
          "startDate": "2025-11-06",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.02,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.16,
      "bestBid": 0.15,
      "bestAsk": 0.16,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-05T21:56:27.267883Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10237",
      "ticker": "trump-out",
      "slug": "trump-out",
      "title": "Trump out",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-09-02T17:24:06.859122Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T21:12:10.266906Z",
      "volume24hr": 851277.921840001,
      "volume": 12055592.828358022,
      "liquidity": 1900581.5912,
      "commentCount": 1262,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "144",
      "label": "Elections",
      "slug": "elections",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:24:31.008+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:24:31.198Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:04.396035Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "756",
      "label": "Epstein",
      "slug": "epstein",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-12-19 19:50:47.215+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-12-19T19:50:47.236Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-12T15:57:40.336492Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "trump-out",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "President Trump's second term, underway since January 2025, shows no active impeachment proceedings or invocation of the 25th Amendment, bolstering trader consensus at 84.5% for \"No\" on early departure before 2027. Recent House resolutions like H.Res.939 from Democrats have failed amid Republican majorities in Congress, echoing prior acquittals despite two impeachments in his first term. Trump continues executive actions, including a fresh order on college sports fairness and FY2027 budget proposals emphasizing military and TSA reforms, signaling operational stability. Democratic rhetoric from figures like Gov. Gavin Newsom and strategist James Carville highlights midterm risks in November 2026 potentially flipping the House, but Senate conviction thresholds remain a high barrier, limiting upside for \"Yes\" odds.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T21:02:07.742Z"
  }
}