
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
trump-out-as-president-by-april-30
Volume
3.6M
24h volume
726.5K
1w volume
3.3M
Open interest
2.0M
Liquidity
632.0K
Liquidity CLOB
632.0K
Start
Mar 26, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 26, 2026
Event ID
311040
Slug
trump-out-as-president-by-april-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 98.5% on President Trump ceasing to serve by April 30, reflecting the absence of any viable removal mechanisms amid high constitutional barriers. Despite partisan Democratic calls for 25th Amendment invocation following Trump's April 6 White House press conference—where he reiterated threats against Iran's infrastructure amid ongoing U.S. military operations—no Cabinet members or Vice President Vance have signaled support, and impeachment resolutions like H.Res. 939 lack momentum in the Republican-controlled Congress. Recent Cabinet shifts, such as ousting officials, have not destabilized his administration. Realistic shifts would require a sudden health crisis, mass Cabinet defection, or unprecedented bipartisan Senate supermajority for conviction, all improbable within three weeks given historical precedents like failed post-January 6 efforts.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:18:26.187Z"
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