
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
trump-out-as-president-by-april-30
Volume
8.0M
24h volume
381.0K
1w volume
3.2M
Open interest
3.4M
Liquidity
1.0M
Liquidity CLOB
1.0M
Start
Mar 26, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 26, 2026
Event ID
311040
Slug
trump-out-as-president-by-april-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors President Trump remaining in office through April 30, driven by the absence of any active impeachment proceedings in the House, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or credible resignation signals in the past 30 days. Constitutional safeguards—requiring a House majority to impeach and two-thirds Senate conviction, improbable amid Republican majorities—plus no reported health crises or scandals escalating to removal threats, anchor the near-certain pricing. Standard executive actions continue uninterrupted. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen events like a major scandal triggering impeachment votes, sudden incapacity prompting VP and cabinet action under the 25th Amendment, or voluntary resignation, though none appear imminent ahead of midterms.",
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