Trump out as President by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

trump-out-as-president-by-april-30

Volume

3.6M

24h volume

710.8K

1w volume

3.3M

Open interest

2.0M

Liquidity

827.0K

Liquidity CLOB

827.0K

Start

Mar 26, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 26, 2026

Event ID

311040

Slug

trump-out-as-president-by-april-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus implies a 98.5% probability that President Trump remains in office through April 30, driven by steep constitutional barriers to removal: impeachment requires House passage and two-thirds Senate conviction, unlikely under Republican majorities, while 25th Amendment Section 4 demands Vice President Vance plus cabinet majority declaration of incapacity. Over the Easter weekend, online health rumors alleging Walter Reed hospitalization—prompting denials from White House officials—and backlash to Trump's Iran social media post spurred Democratic lawmakers' 25th Amendment calls and a poll showing 52% impeachment support, but no formal proceedings have materialized amid GOP loyalty. Realistic shifts could stem from verified health crisis, major scandal triggering bipartisan defections, or unexpected resignation.",
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