
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
trump-out-as-president-by-june-30
Volume
2.8M
24h volume
46.8K
1w volume
559.0K
Open interest
1.6M
Liquidity
483.7K
Liquidity CLOB
483.7K
Start
Mar 11, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 11, 2026
Event ID
261273
Slug
trump-out-as-president-by-june-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trump remains firmly entrenched as President, with traders pricing a 94.5% implied probability he will not leave office by June 30 amid ongoing foreign policy challenges but no viable removal mechanisms in motion. Recent de-escalation signals in the Iran conflict—including Trump's April 10 claim of \"total victory,\" reports of ceasefire talks on April 8, and U.S. naval actions like the Strait of Hormuz blockade on April 12—have eased earlier March tensions that prompted official resignations in protest and Democratic calls for impeachment or 25th Amendment invocation. Active White House engagements, such as press gaggles on April 11-12 and a presidential sequestration order on April 10, underscore operational stability. Republican congressional majorities block impeachment until potential midterm shifts in November, while no health issues, resignation rumors, or cabinet revolt have materialized to alter trader consensus on continuity.",
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