Trump out as President by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trump remains firmly entrenched as president, with traders assigning a 94.5% implied probability to him staying in office through June 30 amid ongoing White House activities, including today's press conference vowing escalation against Iran if no deal is reached on the Strait of Hormuz. Recent Democratic calls for invoking the 25th Amendment or impeachment—spurred by Trump's expletive-laden threats toward Iran and a new national poll showing majority voter support for removal—have fueled partisan rhetoric, but face steep institutional barriers: Cabinet loyalty under Vice President Vance blocks Section 4 activation, while House impeachment requires midterms in November and Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority unlikely before summer. No verified health issues, resignation signals, or legal proceedings threaten early exit, anchoring trader consensus in historical precedent where no president has been forcibly removed mid-term.",
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