This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-march-31
Volume
3.9M
24h volume
93.9K
1w volume
658.3K
Open interest
322.0K
Liquidity
29.2K
Liquidity CLOB
29.2K
Start
Mar 11, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 11, 2026
Event ID
259755
Slug
us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-march-31
Markets
3
{
"id": "259755",
"ticker": "us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-march-31",
"slug": "us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-march-31",
"title": "US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nEscort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-03-11T20:55:35.17031Z",
"creationDate": "2026-03-11T20:55:35.170306Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": true,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 29226.559,
"volume": 3853227.3182590134,
"openInterest": 322022.154524,
"createdAt": "2026-03-10T22:05:43.616203Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-16T11:47:47.482208Z",
"competitive": 0.9248768757659137,
"volume24hr": 93885.48820499999,
"volume1wk": 658308.7256209995,
"volume1mo": 1799305.027587,
"volume1yr": 1799305.027587,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 29226.559,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 165,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1554932",
"question": "US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?",
"conditionId": "0xcab77c44e435400dba6d3ab41eaef2a504bebd7e2d080ec18d14cf45ddf41784",
"slug": "us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-march-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-03-11T20:55:11.208Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nEscort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "2053922.2906720124",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-10T22:05:45.062442Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T21:49:49.982509Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-01 08:51:17+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x6129d828492dd9912e733b9c2ebd9512c24c2dd5605734031bbd0dbbca30e9b6",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-01T08:51:17Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 2053922.2906720124,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-11",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"34522029811885165268273792456913474420221035255265728336691773789337117326368\", \"33103701112381243238391633686384799058010245388391154214246335229987510930301\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 2053922.2906720124,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-11T20:54:05Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "123447",
"conditionId": "0xcab77c44e435400dba6d3ab41eaef2a504bebd7e2d080ec18d14cf45ddf41784",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 0.001,
"startDate": "2026-04-01",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"lastTradePrice": 0.007,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-11T20:52:50.287244Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1653794",
"question": "US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?",
"conditionId": "0x01ffd0acf0d6e42558a7cbd521efde937166a1bf09f3a2dfcdf36950c2dd3635",
"slug": "us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-april-30-894",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "29351.8897",
"startDate": "2026-03-19T18:38:00.602Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nEscort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.215\", \"0.785\"]",
"volume": "755218.1164919992",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-19T18:32:33.913169Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-16T11:45:35.684469Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "April 30",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0x86e8a6b8425ae70eac80b07164a85cb989eb00f9922e36c47d68b7322276b45c",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 755218.1164919992,
"liquidityNum": 29351.8897,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-19",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 26173.345659999995,
"volume1wk": 198749.59817699986,
"volume1mo": 755218.1164920003,
"volume1yr": 755218.1164920003,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"39692746408839627006625117454702416483396848777109545915742836472702053280131\", \"48040978383503935282200437732940432868713878504371477146915673656590841115861\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 26173.345659999995,
"volume1wkClob": 198749.59817699986,
"volume1moClob": 755218.1164920003,
"volume1yrClob": 755218.1164920003,
"volumeClob": 755218.1164919992,
"liquidityClob": 29351.8897,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-19T18:36:55Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9248768757659137,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "107747",
"conditionId": "0x01ffd0acf0d6e42558a7cbd521efde937166a1bf09f3a2dfcdf36950c2dd3635",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 50,
"startDate": "2026-03-20",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.02,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.055,
"lastTradePrice": 0.22,
"bestBid": 0.21,
"bestAsk": 0.22,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-19T18:33:30.833072Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1706823",
"question": "US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?",
"conditionId": "0x9e570fa9b5258f954859874e92e2de4be636f377d9968150915670d9bac09100",
"slug": "us-escorts-commercial-ship-through-hormuz-by-april-15",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-03-24T18:00:19.064528Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-announces-hormuz-commercial-ship-escorts-by-march-31-lQVB0PW2wg07.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nEscort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.\n\nA qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "1044283.4553970018",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-24T17:57:10.560807Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-16T11:47:21.87138Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-16 06:36:42+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "April 15",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0x302cc735e1953d563c6c448834ddca68652c87536ca0456fa6a6398904139786",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-16T06:36:42Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 1044283.4553970018,
"endDateIso": "2026-04-15",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-24",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 67908.68684699999,
"volume1wk": 459750.67174599954,
"volume1mo": 1044283.4553969996,
"volume1yr": 1044283.4553969996,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"30791280934025047958914225503915607438491386367206602598648957813347539658202\", \"82986721691155664298202077927579257946259078025036550981862169585551772326484\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 67908.68684699999,
"volume1wkClob": 459750.67174599954,
"volume1moClob": 1044283.4553969996,
"volume1yrClob": 1044283.4553969996,
"volumeClob": 1044283.4553970018,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-24T17:59:13Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.0125,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0815,
"lastTradePrice": 0.001,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-24T17:57:59.913953Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "262",
"label": "Strait of Hormuz",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T21:01:56.57983Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T20:58:45.736397Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T20:50:21.179195Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "309",
"label": "Oil",
"slug": "oil",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:53:13.969+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:53:13.977Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T20:29:02.371287Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104039",
"label": "U.S. x Iran",
"slug": "trump-iran",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-02T20:09:15.156731Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T20:49:20.612242Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "78",
"label": "Iran",
"slug": "iran",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T20:46:02.34025Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"featuredOrder": 23,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "US trader consensus on direct US Navy escorts for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, anchored by a US official's April 15 statement to CNN confirming no such operations are active, with the Navy instead informing non-Iran-linked merchant vessels of safe passage and urging transit. This follows March denials from the White House and reports of US military unreadiness amid focus on striking Iranian assets, after initial Trump announcements of tanker escorts that did not materialize. CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper affirmed the strait is physically open but deterred by Iranian drone and missile threats, with US efforts prioritizing degradation of Tehran's capabilities. Escalation risks persist if attacks resume, potentially prompting policy shifts before April 30 resolution windows.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-16T11:47:03.053Z"
}
}