
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ticker
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
Volume
621.5K
24h volume
13.5K
1w volume
94.3K
Open interest
128.9K
Liquidity
42.6K
Liquidity CLOB
42.6K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73106
Slug
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
Markets
1
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"context_description": "High-level US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad concluded without a nuclear agreement on April 12 after 21 hours of negotiations, but US Vice President JD Vance and President Trump highlighted progress and Iran's interest in a deal, with new rounds expected within days. The US proposed a 20-year uranium enrichment moratorium and verifiable limits under IAEA monitoring in exchange for sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, while Iran countered with a shorter 3-5 year suspension amid economic pressures from the US blockade. Trader consensus at 70.5% yes reflects ongoing diplomatic momentum since February 2026, Trump's preference for negotiation over escalation following prior strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and the extended timeline before 2027 resolution, though sticking points on duration and regional proxies persist.",
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