
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ticker
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
Volume
513.3K
24h volume
36.3K
1w volume
66.3K
Open interest
100.2K
Liquidity
35.4K
Liquidity CLOB
35.4K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73106
Slug
us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027
Markets
1
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"context_description": "President Trump's announcement on April 6, 2026, that a Tuesday deadline for Iran to accept a nuclear deal is final and non-extendable has solidified trader consensus against a US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027, with \"No\" shares at 57.5%. This follows his rejection of Tehran's latest proposal as \"not good enough,\" amid ongoing US-Israel strikes targeting Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure after earlier escalations. Negotiations, initiated in April 2025, have yielded mixed results, hampered by Iran's advancing uranium enrichment and US demands for zero enrichment, echoing Trump's prior withdrawal from the 2015 JCPOA. With ultimatums and threats of further military action, the wisdom of crowds prices in slim odds of diplomatic breakthrough before year-end, though a last-minute concession remains possible.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T18:49:52.512Z"
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