US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Ticker

us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027

Volume

513.3K

24h volume

36.3K

1w volume

66.3K

Open interest

100.1K

Liquidity

45.6K

Liquidity CLOB

45.6K

Start

Nov 5, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 5, 2025

Event ID

73106

Slug

us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027

Markets

1

Tags

IsraelPoliticsForeign PolicyWorldIranMiddle EastGeopoliticsNuclear
Raw event data
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "President Trump's April 6 press conference, reiterating threats to obliterate Iranian bridges and power plants absent a ceasefire deal, underscores the collapse of nuclear negotiations, driving trader consensus toward \"No\" at 57.5%. Indirect Geneva talks concluded February 26 without agreement, as U.S. demands for permanent curbs—dismantling enrichment facilities, exporting highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and no sunset clause—clashed with Iran's insistence on sanctions relief and minimal enrichment rights. Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear sites since June 2025, coupled with Strait of Hormuz tensions and rejected ceasefire proposals via Oman and Pakistan intermediaries, have pivoted diplomacy toward de-escalation over comprehensive pact, with deadlines like April 8 looming amid war risks. Historical JCPOA withdrawal fuels enduring mistrust.",
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