US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

{
  "id": "257313",
  "ticker": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30",
  "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30",
  "title": "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-09T21:07:28.909131Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-09T21:07:28.909128Z",
  "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 53517.50398,
  "volume": 402427.1124750014,
  "openInterest": 250102.590003,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-09T20:50:36.883403Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:56.900245Z",
  "competitive": 0.8309782026107673,
  "volume24hr": 62261.75879799999,
  "volume1wk": 275758.33002999984,
  "volume1mo": 402427.1124750002,
  "volume1yr": 402427.1124750002,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 53517.50398,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1543487",
      "question": "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?",
      "conditionId": "0xd08544f6162283dc8d0a82f16362aab837a8537379df9bbe604960eec9cd4618",
      "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "54040.09077",
      "startDate": "2026-03-09T21:05:41.285801Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.049\", \"0.951\"]",
      "volume": "402427.1124750014",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T20:50:38.611371Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:33.375421Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xea1d8466378d2e550662687ce5ebb26d5cb16916d4bef8f74dcc1da81cd52bb0",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 402427.1124750014,
      "liquidityNum": 54040.09077,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-09",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 62261.75879799999,
      "volume1wk": 275758.33002999984,
      "volume1mo": 402427.1124750002,
      "volume1yr": 402427.1124750002,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"112492422223721833247811647742275675824808408889541609334054707084262154976006\", \"63111054483017727612527014142487261417181554883649541604828011046058146540352\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 62261.75879799999,
      "volume1wkClob": 275758.33002999984,
      "volume1moClob": 402427.1124750002,
      "volume1yrClob": 402427.1124750002,
      "volumeClob": 402427.1124750014,
      "liquidityClob": 54040.09077,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-09T21:04:35Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8309782026107673,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "111517",
          "conditionId": "0xd08544f6162283dc8d0a82f16362aab837a8537379df9bbe604960eec9cd4618",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 100,
          "startDate": "2026-03-23",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.008,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.015,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.002,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.081,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.054,
      "bestBid": 0.045,
      "bestAsk": 0.053,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-09T20:56:53.329632Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10146",
      "ticker": "nuclear-deal",
      "slug": "nuclear-deal",
      "title": "nuclear deal",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-14-IRIODX3MAqwP.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-negative-approval-before-march-1qIERzlB6HpB.jpg",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-06-27T16:45:56.780168Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:40:13.491633Z",
      "volume24hr": 114994.42949399998,
      "volume": 1904817.1683099987,
      "liquidity": 118814.95268,
      "commentCount": 364,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "104010",
      "label": "Iran Ceasefire",
      "slug": "diplomacy-ceasefire",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:58:33.637952Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T01:00:00.556226Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104039",
      "label": "U.S. x Iran",
      "slug": "trump-iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T20:09:15.156731Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:28:43.535987Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "nuclear-deal",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects near-certain expectations of no US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by the collapse of indirect negotiations in Geneva last February, where Iran rejected US demands for permanent dismantlement of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, full uranium stockpile transfer, and zero enrichment rights. Escalation to direct military conflict, including Iranian missile strikes and US-Israel responses, led Tehran to suspend talks indefinitely, compounded by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade and Trump's April 4 ultimatum threatening infrastructure strikes unless reopened. A third-party ceasefire proposal emerged April 6, but with hostilities persisting and no nuclear-specific progress, barriers remain insurmountable absent a rapid de-escalation and diplomatic reversal—scenarios like immediate truce acceptance or surprise concessions could theoretically shift odds, though recent breakdowns make this improbable.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:33:36.507Z"
  }
}