US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Ticker

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30

Volume

403.5K

24h volume

62.9K

1w volume

276.8K

Open interest

250.8K

Liquidity

54.1K

Liquidity CLOB

54.1K

Start

Mar 9, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 9, 2026

Event ID

257313

Slug

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

Iran CeasefireIranGeopoliticsMiddle EastU.S. x IranIsraelWorld
Raw event data
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  "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30",
  "title": "US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?",
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  "resolutionSource": "",
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      "slug": "diplomacy-ceasefire",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a mere 5% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30, driven by collapsed mediation efforts and deepening military confrontation. Pakistan's back-channel facilitation ended April 4 after Iran rejected a US 15-point proposal demanding nuclear site dismantlement, uranium surrender, proxy support cessation, and unconditional Strait of Hormuz reopening, countering instead with demands for halted aggression, reparations, and sovereignty guarantees. Strikes killing Iranian negotiator Kamal Kharazi on April 1 and a downed US F-15E have obliterated trust, with Tehran deeming talks \"impossible\" amid ongoing exchanges. President Trump's recent ultimatums threatening infrastructure \"demolition\" if no progress highlight irreconcilable positions, though late diplomatic surges via Oman or others could theoretically shift odds.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T20:50:53.131Z"
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