US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

{
  "id": "108031",
  "ticker": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "title": "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-12-17T22:54:48.22297Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-12-17T22:54:48.222968Z",
  "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 44024.107,
  "volume": 1132881.5518919998,
  "openInterest": 177743.593548,
  "createdAt": "2025-12-17T20:59:19.487226Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T21:46:41.733947Z",
  "competitive": 0.9975062344139651,
  "volume24hr": 19992.015857999995,
  "volume1wk": 129426.25820699996,
  "volume1mo": 309303.1406410001,
  "volume1yr": 1132881.5518919989,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 44024.107,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "957019",
      "question": "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?",
      "conditionId": "0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633",
      "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "44058.3274",
      "startDate": "2025-12-17T22:48:36.561004Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.55\", \"0.45\"]",
      "volume": "1132881.5518919998",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-12-17T20:59:21.103877Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T21:45:55.32736Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x95d935d3c9d094ae0a7a2ab47e33165ffd9785c48b17f1e4a7f80970484adef8",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 1132881.5518919998,
      "liquidityNum": 44058.3274,
      "endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
      "startDateIso": "2025-12-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 19992.015857999995,
      "volume1wk": 129411.97249399996,
      "volume1mo": 309303.1406410001,
      "volume1yr": 1132881.5518919989,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"68283792174293775430535402015214113701251372409839518501034763677920213819299\", \"10690391194840875541563517589463912963575786539307433160985752952931887140267\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 19992.015857999995,
      "volume1wkClob": 129411.97249399996,
      "volume1moClob": 309303.1406410001,
      "volume1yrClob": 1132881.5518919989,
      "volumeClob": 1132881.5518919998,
      "liquidityClob": 44058.3274,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-12-17T22:48:13Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9975062344139651,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "54454",
          "conditionId": "0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 2,
          "startDate": "2026-01-12",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.02,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.125,
      "oneHourPriceChange": -0.005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.205,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": 0.345,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.54,
      "bestBid": 0.54,
      "bestAsk": 0.56,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-17T22:47:39.861657Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10146",
      "ticker": "nuclear-deal",
      "slug": "nuclear-deal",
      "title": "nuclear deal",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-14-IRIODX3MAqwP.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-negative-approval-before-march-1qIERzlB6HpB.jpg",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-06-27T16:45:56.780168Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T21:46:46.483701Z",
      "volume24hr": 98211.336611,
      "volume": 2862879.303823999,
      "liquidity": 131145.92758,
      "commentCount": 388,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104010",
      "label": "Iran Ceasefire",
      "slug": "diplomacy-ceasefire",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:58:33.637952Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T01:00:00.556226Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1289",
      "label": "Nuclear",
      "slug": "nuclear",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-07 22:16:09.803+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-07T22:16:09.819Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:24.327913Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "nuclear-deal",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Recent U.S.-Iran direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 collapsed without a nuclear framework agreement, centered on disagreements over a U.S.-proposed 20-year uranium enrichment suspension, stockpile elimination, and sanctions relief, prompting President Trump's administration to launch a naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz for leverage. With diplomats now scheduling a potential second round before the April 21 ceasefire expires, traders price a 54% yes probability for a deal by June 30, balancing diplomatic engagement signals against escalation pressures and entrenched divides. Progress could accelerate via compromise on enrichment caps and verification; breakdown risks further military posturing or stalled multilateral efforts.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T21:18:17.932Z"
  }
}