
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ticker
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30
Volume
989.1K
24h volume
16.4K
1w volume
81.1K
Open interest
159.7K
Liquidity
29.8K
Liquidity CLOB
29.8K
Start
Dec 17, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 17, 2025
Event ID
108031
Slug
us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 73.5% for a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, driven by the collapse of indirect talks in late February 2026 and ensuing US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, which killed top leaders and shattered trust. Ongoing hostilities persist, with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz—charging tolls on stranded tankers amid soaring oil prices—and US forces conducting strikes on IRGC assets. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including a Chinese-mediated ceasefire plan received April 6 with Iranian nuclear curbs for sanctions relief, were dismissed by President Trump as \"not good enough,\" while Tehran rejects zero-enrichment demands. Maximalist positions and escalation risks leave scant path to agreement before summer, though late breakthroughs remain possible amid economic pressures.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:03:37.987Z"
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