US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Ticker

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30

Volume

985.4K

24h volume

14.3K

1w volume

79.0K

Open interest

158.8K

Liquidity

28.6K

Liquidity CLOB

28.6K

Start

Dec 17, 2025

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 17, 2025

Event ID

108031

Slug

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30

Markets

1

Tags

Middle EastWorldIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireNuclear
Raw event data
{
  "id": "108031",
  "ticker": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "title": "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-12-17T22:54:48.22297Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-12-17T22:54:48.222968Z",
  "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 28588.2333,
  "volume": 985363.0042779971,
  "openInterest": 158849.592714,
  "createdAt": "2025-12-17T20:59:19.487226Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T13:27:16.762047Z",
  "competitive": 0.9433739770288437,
  "volume24hr": 14316.141857999999,
  "volume1wk": 78961.13286,
  "volume1mo": 223871.96127499995,
  "volume1yr": 985363.0042780007,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 28588.2333,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "957019",
      "question": "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?",
      "conditionId": "0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633",
      "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "29722.1445",
      "startDate": "2025-12-17T22:48:36.561004Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-x-iran-nuclear-deal-in-2025-3rpCC4Kl23Lc.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.255\", \"0.745\"]",
      "volume": "985363.0042779971",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-12-17T20:59:21.103877Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T13:29:47.506033Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x95d935d3c9d094ae0a7a2ab47e33165ffd9785c48b17f1e4a7f80970484adef8",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 985363.0042779971,
      "liquidityNum": 29722.1445,
      "endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
      "startDateIso": "2025-12-17",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 14316.141857999999,
      "volume1wk": 78961.13286,
      "volume1mo": 223871.96127499995,
      "volume1yr": 985363.0042780007,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"68283792174293775430535402015214113701251372409839518501034763677920213819299\", \"10690391194840875541563517589463912963575786539307433160985752952931887140267\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 14316.141857999999,
      "volume1wkClob": 78961.13286,
      "volume1moClob": 223871.96127499995,
      "volume1yrClob": 985363.0042780007,
      "volumeClob": 985363.0042779971,
      "liquidityClob": 29722.1445,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-12-17T22:48:13Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9433739770288437,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "54454",
          "conditionId": "0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 2,
          "startDate": "2026-01-12",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.04,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.01,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.08,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.035,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.26,
      "bestBid": 0.25,
      "bestAsk": 0.26,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-17T22:47:39.861657Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10146",
      "ticker": "nuclear-deal",
      "slug": "nuclear-deal",
      "title": "nuclear deal",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-14-IRIODX3MAqwP.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/trump-negative-approval-before-march-1qIERzlB6HpB.jpg",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-06-27T16:45:56.780168Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T13:27:28.776928Z",
      "volume24hr": 113093.998495,
      "volume": 1870629.466186999,
      "liquidity": 135488.22146,
      "commentCount": 364,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "180",
      "label": "Israel",
      "slug": "israel",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104010",
      "label": "Iran Ceasefire",
      "slug": "diplomacy-ceasefire",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:58:33.637952Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-25T01:00:00.556226Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1289",
      "label": "Nuclear",
      "slug": "nuclear",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-07 22:16:09.803+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-07T22:16:09.819Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:24.327913Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "nuclear-deal",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at just 25.5% likelihood, reflecting stalled indirect negotiations amid ongoing hostilities that erupted with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 following Geneva talks. Iran's rejection of recent US-backed ceasefire proposals, including a 48-hour truce and 15-point peace plan demanding zero uranium enrichment, dismantlement of facilities like Fordow and Natanz, and uranium stockpile transfer, has deepened distrust after prior talks collapsed into airstrikes. Tehran insists on substantial sanctions relief and refuses core US red lines, while President Trump warns of escalation including Strait of Hormuz reopening by Tuesday or further strikes. With oil prices surging and no technical breakthroughs via Omani or Pakistani mediators, traders see formidable barriers despite intermittent diplomatic signals.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T13:18:36.513Z"
  }
}