
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31
Volume
844.6K
24h volume
167.3K
1w volume
844.6K
Open interest
350.3K
Liquidity
153.0K
Liquidity CLOB
153.0K
Start
Mar 31, 2026
End
May 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 31, 2026
Event ID
329654
Slug
us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31
Markets
1
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"title": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?",
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"context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 84% for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, reflecting stalled nuclear negotiations and escalating hostilities in the ongoing 2026 Iran conflict initiated in late February. Iran, holding around 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—has rejected US demands to surrender its stockpile, destroy facilities, or halt enrichment, as reiterated in recent Foreign Ministry statements and a dismissal of a 15-point US plan. Diplomatic efforts collapsed after March talks deemed US negotiators unprepared, with no handover progress amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, Trump administration threats to target infrastructure, and Iranian accusations of covert US theft attempts during a pilot rescue. Military seizure options discussed with Israel remain unexecuted due to high risks, leaving slim odds for resolution before the deadline.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:33:05.079Z"
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