US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31

Volume

845.8K

24h volume

167.4K

1w volume

845.8K

Open interest

349.9K

Liquidity

63.3K

Liquidity CLOB

63.3K

Start

Mar 31, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 31, 2026

Event ID

329654

Slug

us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31

Markets

1

Tags

TrumpIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIran CeasefirePolitics
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Ongoing indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations stalled after the third round in Geneva on February 26, 2026, with no deal on Tehran's nuclear program as US demands for Iran to dismantle Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities and transfer its enriched uranium stockpile clashed against Iran's insistence on continuing enrichment—a red line US officials have tentatively accepted but not bridged. IAEA reports highlight Iran's growing stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium at 60% purity, yet Tehran shows no sign of repatriation amid mutual distrust post-JCPOA collapse. Absent scheduled talks or breakthroughs, traders price an 83.5% \"No\" probability, citing diplomatic deadlock, tight May 31 timeline, and risks of escalation over seizure options.",
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