US recession by end of 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilience in core economic indicators despite headwinds from surging oil prices tied to Middle East tensions. March CPI showed energy inflation at 12.5% year-over-year, prompting brief odds spikes to 40% for recession earlier this month, yet Q4 2025 GDP grew 2.0% and Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 tracker holds near 2%, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The March 18 FOMC statement highlighted elevated uncertainty but affirmed healthy growth projections around 2%, aligning with Goldman Sachs' 30% recession risk. Key catalysts ahead include late-April Q1 GDP advance and May nonfarm payrolls, which could sway sentiment if labor softens further.",
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