US recession by end of 2026? | Market Ahead

US recession by end of 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Ticker

us-recession-by-end-of-2026

Volume

1.7M

24h volume

12

1w volume

7.9K

Open interest

268.8K

Liquidity

28.9K

Liquidity CLOB

28.9K

Start

Sep 29, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Sep 29, 2025

Event ID

48802

Slug

us-recession-by-end-of-2026

Markets

1

Tags

Business Economy Economic Policy Macro Graph

Raw event data

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  "title": "US recession by end of 2026?",
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      "slug": "us-recession-by",
      "title": "US recession by",
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      "label": "Business",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:20:37.48+00",
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      "label": "Macro Graph",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "**Robust economic indicators underpin the 91.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. recession by end-2026.** As of late August 2026, real GDP expanded 1.5% annualized in Q2 following 2.1% in Q1, while the unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.3% with the Sahm Rule at -0.03 and the 10Y-2Y yield curve steepening to +47 to +55 basis points. ISM manufacturing PMI reached 55.6, and leading indicators such as the Conference Board LEI posted modest gains. Models from the New York Fed and composites assign 12-month recession odds of roughly 12-16%, consistent with trader consensus backed by real capital. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3.3% and geopolitical oil risks could prompt further Fed holds or hikes, yet near-term contraction thresholds remain distant absent sharp labor-market deterioration or policy shocks before year-end.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-08-27T04:31:48.866Z"
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US recession by end of 2026?
Vol 1.7MLiq 28.7KEnd Jan 31, 2027OpenOrder book