US recession by end of 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability against a US recession by end-2026, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, driven primarily by March 2026 nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding expectations after February's dip—while unemployment eased to 4.3%, underscoring labor market resilience amid cooling inflation pressures. Supporting this, Q4 2025 GDP grew 0.7% annualized, with consensus forecasts like CBO and Deloitte projecting 2.2% expansion for 2026, aligned with FOMC's March projections of steady growth and one rate cut from the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions pose upside risks to inflation, but robust consumer spending and policy accommodation sustain optimism ahead of Q1 GDP data due late April and the May FOMC meeting.",
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