Loading event…
US strike on Colombia by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31
Volume
1.5M
24h volume
15
1w volume
46.5K
Open interest
67.3K
Liquidity
20.2K
Liquidity CLOB
20.2K
Start
Jan 4, 2026
End
Jan 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 4, 2026
Event ID
143633
Slug
us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31
Markets
3
Raw event data
{
"id": "143633",
"ticker": "us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31",
"slug": "us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31",
"title": "US strike on Colombia by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:58:13.929983Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-04T19:58:13.92998Z",
"endDate": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 20220.8329,
"volume": 1502561.163081,
"openInterest": 67306.519336,
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:44:01.813645Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T01:06:48.483726Z",
"competitive": 0.9071117561683599,
"volume24hr": 14.741126999999999,
"volume1wk": 46462.49917899999,
"volume1mo": 680872.0708830002,
"volume1yr": 1093685.036331,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 20220.8329,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 43,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1107307",
"question": "US strike on Colombia by December 31?",
"conditionId": "0xc6e54956b79ddf6f8640df06eea9ffb1f5e558907b2a9031aa00cefeb5f3ab22",
"slug": "us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "20230.7129",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:56:07.139262Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.18\", \"0.82\"]",
"volume": "425346.0984890002",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:45:34.06585Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T01:05:36.82478Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "December 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0xb9093af1d9f7fe65148ee5ed9f431e6bef19248ae69da1978cc1d2f81126111b",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 425346.0984890002,
"liquidityNum": 20230.7129,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-04",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 14.741126999999999,
"volume1wk": 1606.3472939999997,
"volume1mo": 12533.133041000001,
"volume1yr": 425346.09848899994,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"74636610772409469817718475200152067076720965641263785464662938420699072982790\", \"105908573240663389268879331099901068872848375329297966573120454297394481597082\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 14.741126999999999,
"volume1wkClob": 1606.3472939999997,
"volume1moClob": 12533.133041000001,
"volume1yrClob": 425346.09848899994,
"volumeClob": 425346.0984890002,
"liquidityClob": 20230.7129,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:55:45Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9071117561683599,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "53164",
"conditionId": "0xc6e54956b79ddf6f8640df06eea9ffb1f5e558907b2a9031aa00cefeb5f3ab22",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2026-01-04",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.015,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.045,
"lastTradePrice": 0.19,
"bestBid": 0.17,
"bestAsk": 0.19,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:46:23.836731Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1107284",
"question": "US strike on Colombia by January 31?",
"conditionId": "0x34b55645184672ed7de5bb1d10f642c79739f66062d2831b41a77e31f99f0816",
"slug": "us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:56:07.392907Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "668338.937842",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:44:02.546101Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:46:21.077561Z",
"closedTime": "2026-02-01 07:57:44+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "January 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xdbb66df283775b67602e53b9fd1ab836f897e7ab700f6cbb9605165923ff95a4",
"umaEndDate": "2026-02-01T07:57:44Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 668338.937842,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-04",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume1wk": 44856.15188499999,
"volume1mo": 668338.9378420002,
"volume1yr": 668338.9378420002,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"53524977528256405185746242947442173839362887245394744495612722170901977248514\", \"89386018629693096548581536515236072096054133458130131505001738068415769456408\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume1wkClob": 44856.15188499999,
"volume1moClob": 668338.9378420002,
"volume1yrClob": 668338.9378420002,
"volumeClob": 668338.937842,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:55:45Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.004,
"lastTradePrice": 0.001,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:46:23.839773Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1107306",
"question": "US strike on Colombia by March 31?",
"conditionId": "0xb1fb3aaa332db47a97b2478ca9433eefbfbcb4d69c64b2d8477eee574ad66a50",
"slug": "us-strike-on-colombia-by-march-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:56:07.646382Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31-P4KCpXnvCj4O.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "408876.12675",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:45:18.318692Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-04T05:40:17.488565Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-03 06:49:03+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0xedc1fb148061d9c462dfc6bb363a7898f8e24998c0a5a6e358975e88101d124b",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-03T06:49:03Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 408876.12675,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-04",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"10298845750983726412841649860615577258778776344736820662407979144832099626759\", \"102429182452105632765948403975900162037849144249106060712458946869456096642527\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 408876.12675,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:55:45Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.002,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.012,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0385,
"lastTradePrice": 0.001,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:46:23.842836Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "246",
"label": "Venezuela",
"slug": "venezuela",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:43:20.341+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:43:20.356Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:41.386838Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader sentiment reflects low probabilities for a direct US military strike on Colombia, driven by the absence of such action despite escalating regional anti-cartel operations. Joint US-Ecuador strikes under Operation Total Extermination began March 3 along the Colombia border, with one bomb ricocheting into Colombian territory, prompting Pentagon officials on March 17 to call it \"just the beginning\" of broader land-based campaigns against narco-terrorists. Colombia's leftist President Petro faces scrutiny over cartel ties and skipped a US-led anti-narco summit, amid polls showing left candidates leading ahead of the May 31 presidential election. As a historical US ally, Colombia's path-to-victory for non-escalation weighs against further kinetic actions like airstrikes or special operations.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-15T01:02:11.823Z"
}
}- US strike on Colombia by December 31?Vol 425.3KLiq 20.2KEnd Jan 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- US strike on Colombia by January 31?Vol 668.3KLiq —End Jan 31, 2026Closed
- US strike on Colombia by March 31?Vol 408.9KLiq —End Jan 31, 2026Closed