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US strike on Colombia by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31
Volume
1.5M
24h volume
818
1w volume
49.1K
Open interest
88.5K
Liquidity
14.9K
Liquidity CLOB
14.9K
Start
Jan 4, 2026
End
Jan 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 4, 2026
Event ID
143633
Slug
us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31
Markets
3
Raw event data
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"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
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{
"id": "1107306",
"question": "US strike on Colombia by March 31?",
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"label": "Venezuela",
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a direct US military strike—such as a drone or airstrike—on Colombian soil by near-term dates, driven by ongoing US-backed Ecuadorian operations along the shared border under Operation Total Extermination rather than unilateral US action. In late March 2026, Ecuador conducted airstrikes targeting the Border Command drug group, prompting President Gustavo Petro's accusations of sovereignty violations after 27 charred bodies were found; joint US-Ecuador efforts reportedly bombed farms instead of cartel sites, drawing criticism. A Pentagon official stated on March 25 that these attacks mark \"just the beginning\" of a wider Latin American anti-cartel campaign. No confirmed US strikes inside Colombia have occurred, preserving alliance ties amid drug policy tensions, with Shield of the Americas initiatives potentially shaping future escalations or diplomacy.",
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}- US strike on Colombia by December 31?Vol 422.2KLiq 14.9KEnd Jan 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- US strike on Colombia by January 31?Vol 668.3KLiq —End Jan 31, 2026Closed
- US strike on Colombia by March 31?Vol 408.9KLiq —End Jan 31, 2026Closed