US strike on Colombia by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ticker

us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31

Volume

1.5M

24h volume

830

1w volume

49.0K

Open interest

88.2K

Liquidity

15.3K

Liquidity CLOB

15.3K

Start

Jan 4, 2026

End

Jan 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 4, 2026

Event ID

143633

Slug

us-strike-on-colombia-by-january-31

Markets

3

Tags

VenezuelaTrumpPoliticsGeopolitics
Raw event data
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  "tags": [
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      "id": "246",
      "label": "Venezuela",
      "slug": "venezuela",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:43:20.341+00",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
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    "context_description": "US-backed Ecuadorian airstrikes under \"Operation Total Extermination,\" launched in late March near the Colombia border, mark the latest escalation in regional anti-cartel efforts, with Colombia accusing Ecuador of cross-border bombings that left charred remains and civilian impacts like a mistaken dairy farm strike. These actions follow January's US intervention in Venezuela, Trump's threats of military operations against Colombia, and a February US-Colombia agreement to target narco bosses jointly amid President Petro's criticisms of US drug policy. No direct US drone, missile, or air strike on Colombian soil has occurred, sustaining trader caution despite rhetoric signaling potential expansion. Upcoming border incidents or diplomatic summits could catalyze shifts.",
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