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US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both extensions of the April 7 ceasefire and new agreements scheduled to take effect before or at the initial agreement's scheduled end will be considered extensions of the ceasefire agreement, provided there is no period during which no ceasefire is in effect. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. An extension of the ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another for longer than the initially agreed two-week period, or for an official extension of the ceasefire agreement in place to be otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed agreement on a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes a qualifying extension of the ceasefire agreement/halt in military hostilities. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly commit to extending the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
us-x-iran-ceasefire-extended-by
Volume
380.8K
24h volume
193.1K
1w volume
380.8K
Open interest
151.1K
Liquidity
44.5K
Liquidity CLOB
44.5K
Start
Apr 8, 2026
End
Apr 21, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 8, 2026
Event ID
357625
Slug
us-x-iran-ceasefire-extended-by
Markets
2
Raw event data
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"context_description": "A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed on April 7 and brokered by Pakistan, took effect amid escalating military tensions, with Tehran committing to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz while halting attacks on US assets. Now on day five as of April 12, direct negotiations in Islamabad have faltered without agreement, as Iran demands extensions to Lebanon and sanctions relief—terms rejected by Washington, which cites military pressure as leverage for a potential deal. Israel's support is limited to the US-Iran track, excluding proxies. Traders eye upcoming talk rounds and any Trump announcements for extension signals, amid risks of renewed airstrikes or naval blockades if diplomacy stalls.",
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}- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 21, 2026?Vol 237.6KLiq 20.5KEnd Apr 21, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?Vol 143.2KLiq 21.9KEnd Apr 21, 2026OpenOrder book