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What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Ticker
what-will-iran-conduct-military-action-against-by-april-30
Volume
460.6K
24h volume
4.7K
1w volume
162.4K
Open interest
44.7K
Liquidity
114.2K
Liquidity CLOB
114.2K
Start
Mar 23, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 23, 2026
Event ID
300418
Slug
what-will-iran-conduct-military-action-against-by-april-30
Markets
14
Tags
Raw event data
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