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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Ticker

will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027

Volume

315.6K

24h volume

47

1w volume

4.3K

Open interest

2.5K

Liquidity

6.2K

Liquidity CLOB

6.2K

Start

Dec 29, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 29, 2025

Event ID

131388

Slug

will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027

Markets

1

Tags

climate Weather hurricane earthquake Science Climate & Science Natural Disasters

Raw event data

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  "title": "Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus favors \"No\" at 66% implied probability for any Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 130 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making landfall on the continental U.S. before 2027, reflecting the rarity of such events and subdued 2026 season outlooks. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season featured multiple Category 4 and 5 storms like Erin and Melissa, yet marked the first since 2015 with no U.S. hurricane landfalls, as verified by National Hurricane Center data. Early NOAA forecasts for 2026 predict 11-16 named storms and 2-4 majors, below average, amid a 62% chance of El Niño development by summer, which typically suppresses shear and activity in the Atlantic basin. Historical data shows only about one Cat 4 U.S. landfall every 3-5 years; watch May updates from NOAA for refined guidance as the June 1 start nears.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T22:19:54.716Z"
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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Vol 315.6KLiq 6.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book