Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Ticker

will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027

Volume

315.6K

24h volume

1

1w volume

4.2K

Open interest

2.5K

Liquidity

6.1K

Liquidity CLOB

6.1K

Start

Dec 29, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 29, 2025

Event ID

131388

Slug

will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027

Markets

1

Tags

climateWeatherhurricaneearthquakeScienceClimate & ScienceNatural Disasters
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus favors \"No\" at 66% implied probability for any Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130-156 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making continental U.S. landfall before 2027, reflecting the 2025 Atlantic season's anomaly of four major hurricanes (including multiple Category 4/5 systems like Erin and Melissa) but zero U.S. hurricane strikes, the first such year since 2015 per NOAA records. With only the 2026 season remaining, preseason forecasts from AccuWeather predict 11-16 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors amid a likely shift to ENSO-neutral or El Niño conditions (62% NOAA Climate Prediction Center chance for El Niño June-August), which boosts upper-level wind shear and curbs intensification. Warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures pose upside risk, but historical Cat 4 U.S. landfall frequency (roughly 20% annual odds climatologically) and steering patterns support subdued sentiment; NOAA's full outlook due late May could refine probabilities.",
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