
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025
Volume
682.3K
24h volume
8.2K
1w volume
263.4K
Open interest
127.7K
Liquidity
111.3K
Liquidity CLOB
111.3K
Start
Feb 13, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 13, 2025
Event ID
18571
Slug
will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025
Markets
3
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"context_description": "President Trump's April 1 statement that he is \"strongly considering\" withdrawing the United States from NATO—citing allies' refusal to join U.S. military action against Iran—has sparked intense debate, marking the latest escalation in transatlantic tensions. However, a 2023 congressional law bars unilateral presidential exit, requiring two-thirds Senate approval or an act of Congress, with NATO's Article 13 mandating one year's notice; no member has ever invoked it in the alliance's 77-year history. Earlier 2026 speculation about France or Hungary faded without action, while U.S. staff cuts at NATO headquarters in January underscored fiscal pressures but not imminent departure. Traders eye upcoming Senate debates and potential NATO summits as catalysts, amid enduring geopolitical strains from Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.",
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