Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30 at just 4.8%, reflecting high confidence in continued restraint amid de-escalatory signals. A mid-March U.S. intelligence assessment concluded Beijing lacks near-term plans for blockade or invasion, corroborated by reduced People's Liberation Army aircraft incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone—averaging below 200 monthly since January—following December 2025 drills simulating encirclement. Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chairwoman's planned visit to China starting April 7 underscores diplomatic channels over coercion, while Beijing emphasizes reunification rhetoric without kinetic escalation. Taiwan bolsters maritime defenses and extends conscription amid budget hurdles. Realistic shifts could stem from a Taiwanese independence declaration, U.S. military distractions elsewhere, or abrupt PLA surges in the Taiwan Strait, though massive economic fallout and allied deterrence loom large.",
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