Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30

Volume

1.0M

24h volume

6.0K

1w volume

62.8K

Open interest

389.3K

Liquidity

72.4K

Liquidity CLOB

72.4K

Start

Sep 19, 2025

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Sep 19, 2025

Event ID

46844

Slug

will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-june-30

Markets

1

Tags

GeopoliticsWorldChinaTaiwanHFC
Raw event data
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  "title": "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus implies a mere 4.8% chance of China imposing a blockade on Taiwan by June 30, driven by the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or escalatory signals in the Taiwan Strait during March-April. US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March report, judge Beijing unlikely to pursue invasion or blockade in the near term, favoring peaceful reunification amid high economic costs and deterrence from US alliances. Recent diplomatic outreach, such as Taiwan's opposition KMT chair's April 7-12 visit to China, underscores de-escalation channels, despite unexplained 40-day airspace restrictions announced April 6. Taiwan's Han Kuang exercises, starting mid-April, test defenses without provoking response. Scenarios like abrupt military surges, Taiwan independence moves, or US-China crises could still shift odds.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T20:18:33.272Z"
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