
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
Volume
2.7M
24h volume
88.3K
1w volume
745.0K
Open interest
1.0M
Liquidity
213.3K
Liquidity CLOB
213.3K
Start
Dec 17, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 17, 2025
Event ID
107726
Slug
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which concluded Beijing lacks plans for a 2027 assault and prefers unification without force amid economic pressures and military limitations. Recent PLA activities in the Taiwan Strait—such as airspace restrictions, civilian ship maneuvers, and aircraft incursions—remain gray-zone tactics short of invasion mobilization, while Taiwan bolsters defenses with expanded conscription and civil resilience drills. Ongoing U.S. arms sales and deterrence reinforce this positioning. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden escalation like major diplomatic ruptures, leadership changes in Beijing, or unforeseen crises disrupting the status quo.",
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