
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
Volume
5.5M
24h volume
446.6K
1w volume
2.5M
Open interest
1.4M
Liquidity
318.7K
Liquidity CLOB
318.7K
Start
Dec 17, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 17, 2025
Event ID
107726
Slug
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
Markets
1
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"ticker": "china-invade-taiwan",
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"title": "China invade Taiwan",
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"context_description": "US intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released by the ODNI, concluded China is unlikely to attempt a Taiwan invasion even by 2027, citing insufficient PLA readiness for a complex amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait amid economic vulnerabilities and robust US deterrence. Routine Chinese military drills persist, including recent exercises simulating blockades and AI-enabled swarms, but show no mobilization for full-scale invasion, reinforcing trader consensus on a 97% \"No\" probability by June 30. Taiwan bolsters defenses with US-backed arms, while diplomatic rhetoric from Beijing emphasizes reunification over force. Realistic shifts could arise from abrupt escalation like a blockade or Taiwan independence declaration, though formidable logistical, sanctions, and alliance barriers make this improbable in the short window.",
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