Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026

Volume

2.7M

24h volume

86.1K

1w volume

743.7K

Open interest

1.0M

Liquidity

212.4K

Liquidity CLOB

212.4K

Start

Dec 17, 2025

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 17, 2025

Event ID

107726

Slug

will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.3% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments in March 2026 concluding Beijing lacks concrete plans even through 2027 and prefers unification without force due to prohibitive economic and military costs. Ongoing People's Liberation Army activities—such as routine patrols in the Taiwan Strait, airspace restrictions, and gray-zone maneuvers—show no signs of amphibious buildup or full-scale mobilization, amid Taiwan's bolstered defenses and annual wargames simulating PLA contingencies. Heightened U.S. deterrence, allied commitments, and China's internal challenges further solidify this positioning. While near-certain, rapid escalation from diplomatic breakdowns, U.S. distractions like Middle East conflicts, or unforeseen crises could still shift dynamics before resolution.",
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