
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
Volume
2.7M
24h volume
86.1K
1w volume
743.7K
Open interest
1.0M
Liquidity
212.4K
Liquidity CLOB
212.4K
Start
Dec 17, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 17, 2025
Event ID
107726
Slug
will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.3% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by recent U.S. intelligence assessments in March 2026 concluding Beijing lacks concrete plans even through 2027 and prefers unification without force due to prohibitive economic and military costs. Ongoing People's Liberation Army activities—such as routine patrols in the Taiwan Strait, airspace restrictions, and gray-zone maneuvers—show no signs of amphibious buildup or full-scale mobilization, amid Taiwan's bolstered defenses and annual wargames simulating PLA contingencies. Heightened U.S. deterrence, allied commitments, and China's internal challenges further solidify this positioning. While near-certain, rapid escalation from diplomatic breakdowns, U.S. distractions like Middle East conflicts, or unforeseen crises could still shift dynamics before resolution.",
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}- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Vol 2.7MLiq 212.5KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book