Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 94%, reflecting France, UK, and Germany's firm commitment to diplomacy and defensive postures amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated in late February 2026. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the E3 leaders—Macron, Starmer, and the German chancellor—issued joint statements on February 28 condemning Iranian retaliatory attacks on regional targets and US bases while explicitly urging Tehran to resume nuclear and ballistic missile negotiations, clarifying non-participation in offensive operations. Recent developments, including Iran's March 21 missile strike on the UK-controlled Diego Garcia base and April 2-4 UK-led Hormuz Strait talks involving France and Germany, have prompted base access for US strikes (e.g., RAF Fairford, Ramstein) but no direct European airstrikes or military action. Absent major escalation like widespread Iranian attacks on European soil, official reluctance persists through June 30.",
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