
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Ticker
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Volume
925.5K
24h volume
62
1w volume
2.0K
Open interest
158.9K
Liquidity
4.8K
Liquidity CLOB
4.8K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73059
Slug
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Markets
2
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"context_description": "Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah hostilities, reignited by Hezbollah rocket attacks on northern Israel around March 1, 2026, have dashed near-term disarmament prospects, as Israeli airstrikes and ground incursions target group infrastructure in southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs. The Lebanese government, under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, outlawed Hezbollah's military wing and ordered the army to enforce disarmament south of the Litani River per prior ceasefire terms, but General Joseph Aoun refused deployment amid internal rifts. Israel reframed objectives from imminent disarmament—deemed unrealistic without full invasion—to reestablishing a south Lebanon security zone, while Jordan and Saudi Arabia endorsed Lebanon's efforts. No ceasefire negotiations are advancing, with recent Israeli strikes killing civilians and a Christian party official, heightening escalation risks before any resolution.",
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