Loading event…
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Ticker
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Volume
942.9K
24h volume
2.1K
1w volume
16.9K
Open interest
41.2K
Liquidity
38.4K
Liquidity CLOB
38.4K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73059
Slug
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Markets
3
Raw event data
{
"id": "73059",
"ticker": "will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31",
"slug": "will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31",
"title": "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T18:16:48.97965Z",
"creationDate": "2025-11-05T18:16:48.979648Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 38425.47765,
"volume": 942905.7995579987,
"openInterest": 41182.403336999996,
"createdAt": "2025-11-04T17:53:34.378032Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T23:38:18.878247Z",
"competitive": 0.9366804046459348,
"volume24hr": 2075.890979,
"volume1wk": 16875.396069999995,
"volume1mo": 27104.279644999995,
"volume1yr": 36313.57677,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 38425.47765,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 0,
"markets": [
{
"id": "665228",
"question": "Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?",
"conditionId": "0xcfbe2de215f38407317a7ecfff4c13aa591eca2fe428fc203e5669a936009e78",
"slug": "will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T18:10:54.9Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "906592.2227879986",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-11-04T17:53:35.106918Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-02T04:04:14.120495Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-01 07:54:21+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x86cb6548c3fd98ab22d34009b0367061240f84621ece93042476284d6d9a7767",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-01T07:54:21Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 906592.2227879986,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2025-11-05",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"gameStartTime": "2025-11-28 18:00:00+00",
"clobTokenIds": "[\"13726222412844491860621369391578295764460056456966982436233358302388625569468\", \"10852332002112773763359204434610715394710971181223888185945987959566837502210\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 906592.2227879986,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:10:33Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.001,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.067,
"lastTradePrice": 0.002,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\", \"disputed\", \"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:10:06.629815Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1323083",
"question": "Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?",
"conditionId": "0xf724d37268560ac54688062ff8b1c0411004135e82d1dd6ad00531cc4d985550",
"slug": "will-hezbollah-disarm-by-december-31-632-848",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "13907.8605",
"startDate": "2026-02-03T00:03:57.432Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.24\", \"0.76\"]",
"volume": "22705.47401900001",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-02-03T00:01:11.653806Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T23:37:55.112685Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "December 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0x1de3e3c279070d337f24a6d0615b1a6b5809813f6010566ed239ff39d6b8b8ff",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 22705.47401900001,
"liquidityNum": 13907.8605,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-03",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 86.341037,
"volume1wk": 3267.293319,
"volume1mo": 13496.176893999998,
"volume1yr": 22705.474019,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"70891730332783983754038097068699855156768797388773323020505706651244066459609\", \"90889737043160931419301279329265177627640070265027926085121655690919696428047\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 86.341037,
"volume1wkClob": 3267.293319,
"volume1moClob": 13496.176893999998,
"volume1yrClob": 22705.474019,
"volumeClob": 22705.47401900001,
"liquidityClob": 13907.8605,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-03T00:02:52Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9366804046459348,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "88887",
"conditionId": "0xf724d37268560ac54688062ff8b1c0411004135e82d1dd6ad00531cc4d985550",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 10,
"startDate": "2026-02-27",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.115,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.115,
"lastTradePrice": 0.25,
"bestBid": 0.23,
"bestAsk": 0.25,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-03T00:01:38.306376Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1929172",
"question": "Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?",
"conditionId": "0x6b5277be982ad362d2d8ca71ec76d56ac61e2ab9e8b560c4696aec4d128e5e8f",
"slug": "will-hezbollah-disarm-by-april-30-343",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "24517.21048",
"startDate": "2026-04-09T16:30:52.208003Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-hezbollah-to-disarm-before-in-2025-n_fB929bMx99.png",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.015\", \"0.985\"]",
"volume": "13608.102751000004",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-04-09T16:25:42.044932Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T23:38:00.070482Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "April 30",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0xfbeb3eff1e65048c32bb0efc4ac53faffcaa01b043190903391305b6f0a06221",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 13608.102751000004,
"liquidityNum": 24517.21048,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-04-09",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 1989.549942,
"volume1wk": 13608.102750999997,
"volume1mo": 13608.102750999997,
"volume1yr": 13608.102750999997,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"69294832060112440403374649534217656096655298441380250609686580719979609427237\", \"95374644290682424662593080578836414259410082295867802196795096357207723172769\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 1989.549942,
"volume1wkClob": 13608.102750999997,
"volume1moClob": 13608.102750999997,
"volume1yrClob": 13608.102750999997,
"volumeClob": 13608.102751000004,
"liquidityClob": 24517.21048,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-09T16:29:47Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8095691068428829,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "149219",
"conditionId": "0x6b5277be982ad362d2d8ca71ec76d56ac61e2ab9e8b560c4696aec4d128e5e8f",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 20,
"startDate": "2026-04-09",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.004,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.0005,
"lastTradePrice": 0.017,
"bestBid": 0.013,
"bestAsk": 0.017,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-09T16:28:34.964485Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"series": [
{
"id": "10547",
"ticker": "hezbollah-disarm",
"slug": "hezbollah-disarm",
"title": "Hezbollah Disarm",
"seriesType": "single",
"recurrence": "annual",
"image": "",
"icon": "",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"createdAt": "2025-11-05T20:02:01.12864Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T23:38:36.687756Z",
"volume24hr": 2075.890979,
"volume": 942905.7995579987,
"liquidity": 38425.47765,
"commentCount": 202,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101794",
"label": "Foreign Policy",
"slug": "foreign-policy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-02-06T17:24:29.604203Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:21.425957Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "180",
"label": "Israel",
"slug": "israel",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:31:07.39+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:31:07.395Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:02.801468Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "114",
"label": "Syria",
"slug": "syria",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:21:16.389+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:21:16.392Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:34:38.715429Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "849",
"label": "Lebanon",
"slug": "lebanon",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2024-01-09 20:34:03.181+00",
"createdAt": "2024-01-09T20:34:03.207Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.686201Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": true,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"eventDate": "2025-11-27",
"startTime": "2025-11-28T18:00:00Z",
"seriesSlug": "hezbollah-disarm",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Recent Israel-Lebanon talks on April 14 reportedly agreed that Hezbollah must fully disarm south of the Litani River and that Iran should no longer dictate Lebanon's policy, according to sources citing NBC News. This follows Hezbollah's rejection of Lebanon's February four-month timeline for the second phase of disarmament, which it labeled a \"grave sin\" serving Israeli interests. Ceasefire violations under the November 2024 Cessation of Hostilities persist, with clashes and strikes reported through mid-March, while Israel has called full disarmament \"unrealistic\" amid ongoing resistance. Lebanese government decrees banning Hezbollah military activity have yielded no compliance, underscoring high barriers; further diplomatic summits loom as potential catalysts.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T23:18:06.355Z"
}
}- Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Vol 22.7KLiq 13.9KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?Vol 13.6KLiq 24.5KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?Vol 906.6KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed