Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Ticker

will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31

Volume

925.5K

24h volume

48

1w volume

2.0K

Open interest

158.9K

Liquidity

4.7K

Liquidity CLOB

4.7K

Start

Nov 5, 2025

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 5, 2025

Event ID

73059

Slug

will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31

Markets

2

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed at least 15 people on April 6, renewing escalation amid Hezbollah's refusal to meet phased disarmament deadlines under the 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which required withdrawal south of the Litani River and weapons handover to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Lebanese government plans, including a four-month timeline set in February 2026, faced rejection from Hezbollah leaders labeling them an \"Israeli-American plot,\" while the group rebuilds forces despite earlier setbacks. Israel recently deprioritized full disarmament as \"unrealistic\" during ground operations, focusing on a southern security zone, per Defense Minister Katz's statements. No compliance evident in past 30 days; ongoing military actions and stalled diplomacy heighten uncertainty ahead of potential UN Security Council discussions.",
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