
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Ticker
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Volume
925.5K
24h volume
48
1w volume
2.0K
Open interest
158.9K
Liquidity
4.7K
Liquidity CLOB
4.7K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73059
Slug
will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31
Markets
2
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed at least 15 people on April 6, renewing escalation amid Hezbollah's refusal to meet phased disarmament deadlines under the 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which required withdrawal south of the Litani River and weapons handover to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Lebanese government plans, including a four-month timeline set in February 2026, faced rejection from Hezbollah leaders labeling them an \"Israeli-American plot,\" while the group rebuilds forces despite earlier setbacks. Israel recently deprioritized full disarmament as \"unrealistic\" during ground operations, focusing on a southern security zone, per Defense Minister Katz's statements. No compliance evident in past 30 days; ongoing military actions and stalled diplomacy heighten uncertainty ahead of potential UN Security Council discussions.",
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}- Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Vol 19.0KLiq 4.6KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?Vol 906.6KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed