
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ticker
will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
Volume
3.8M
24h volume
13.2K
1w volume
98.2K
Open interest
258.5K
Liquidity
54.6K
Liquidity CLOB
54.6K
Start
May 28, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2025
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
May 28, 2025
Event ID
25413
Slug
will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
Markets
2
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"context_description": "Recent Russian state television discussions of attacking Estonia's Narva to \"destroy NATO and break Europe's will\"—echoing pre-2022 Ukraine rhetoric—have amplified tensions, alongside Lithuanian intelligence reports of Moscow expanding military units near NATO's eastern flank, including Finland and the Baltics, as of early March 2026. NATO is responding with troop reinforcements in Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, fortifying the Suwalki Gap corridor, and heightened vigilance against hybrid threats like sabotage and UAV incursions. While Russia remains bogged down in Ukraine, these developments signal escalation risks, tempered by alliance deterrence under Article 5 and no verified invasion preparations. Upcoming NATO summits and Ukraine aid decisions could further influence trader assessments of direct conflict probabilities before year-end.",
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