
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ticker
will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
Volume
3.8M
24h volume
3.9K
1w volume
67.9K
Open interest
272.0K
Liquidity
62.1K
Liquidity CLOB
62.1K
Start
May 28, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2025
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
May 28, 2025
Event ID
25413
Slug
will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
Markets
2
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"context_description": "Russian military buildups near NATO's eastern flank—reported by Lithuania in early March 2026 as new units gaining Ukraine battle experience—continue driving trader caution on invasion risks against Baltic states like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. NATO generals have warned of potential war by 2029, citing Russia's hybrid warfare escalation including propaganda, sabotage, and airspace provocations over alleged Ukrainian drone facilitation. The ongoing Ukraine conflict, now in its fifth year with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, constrains Moscow's resources amid Article 5 commitments. No direct incursions in the past 30 days; Baltic evacuation plans and NATO reinforcements signal preparedness, while diplomacy remains stalled.",
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