Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Ticker

will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025

Volume

3.8M

24h volume

7.5K

1w volume

103.9K

Open interest

258.9K

Liquidity

61.4K

Liquidity CLOB

61.4K

Start

May 28, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2025

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

May 28, 2025

Event ID

25413

Slug

will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025

Markets

2

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Recent Lithuanian intelligence reports from early March detail Russia's expansion of military units near NATO's eastern borders, particularly the Baltic states, with forces battle-tested in Ukraine potentially serving as invasion hubs if sanctions ease. Finnish assessments confirm a buildup near their border, while Russian state television in late March openly advocated attacking Estonia's Narva to fracture NATO resolve. NATO allies are fortifying the eastern flank amid these developments, drawing on Ukraine war lessons for deterrence. No verified kinetic actions against NATO territory have occurred in the past 30 days, but hybrid threats like sabotage persist, with alliance cohesion and U.S. commitments key variables ahead of any resolution timeline.",
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