
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ticker
will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
Volume
3.8M
24h volume
7.5K
1w volume
103.9K
Open interest
258.9K
Liquidity
61.4K
Liquidity CLOB
61.4K
Start
May 28, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2025
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
May 28, 2025
Event ID
25413
Slug
will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025
Markets
2
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Recent Lithuanian intelligence reports from early March detail Russia's expansion of military units near NATO's eastern borders, particularly the Baltic states, with forces battle-tested in Ukraine potentially serving as invasion hubs if sanctions ease. Finnish assessments confirm a buildup near their border, while Russian state television in late March openly advocated attacking Estonia's Narva to fracture NATO resolve. NATO allies are fortifying the eastern flank amid these developments, drawing on Ukraine war lessons for deterrence. No verified kinetic actions against NATO territory have occurred in the past 30 days, but hybrid threats like sabotage persist, with alliance cohesion and U.S. commitments key variables ahead of any resolution timeline.",
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}- Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?Vol 2.3MLiq 61.5KEnd Dec 31, 2025OpenOrder book
- Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?Vol 1.4MLiq —End Dec 31, 2025Closed