Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 96.8% for the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting the Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes and economic strain from the war. Recent crackdowns, including an execution spree launched April 1 over uprising fears and intensified dissent suppression reported March 30, have quelled protests that peaked in January 2026, with pro-regime demonstrations on March 28 underscoring institutional control by the IRGC and security forces. No major defections, mass mobilizations, or leadership vacuums have emerged in the past 30 days, despite war-related infrastructure damage. While escalation like widespread military mutinies or unmanageable blackouts could shift dynamics, historical patterns of repression favor stability through the short resolution window.",
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