
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-april-30
Volume
30.9M
24h volume
705.3K
1w volume
6.8M
Open interest
12.0M
Liquidity
1.3M
Liquidity CLOB
1.3M
Start
Mar 5, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 5, 2026
Event ID
248032
Slug
will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-april-30
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 98.5% implied probability that the Iranian regime will not fall by April 30, driven by the successful transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader following his father's assassination in late February airstrikes, alongside sustained IRGC crackdowns amid 2025-2026 protests. Recent diplomatic stagnation, including fruitless 21-hour U.S.-Iran talks on April 13 over nuclear issues and Hormuz blockade enforcement, has weakened Tehran's military capabilities without triggering internal collapse or mass defections. Over 1,600 executions last year underscore regime resilience against unrest. With two weeks remaining, barriers like loyalist security forces persist, though escalation in U.S.-Israeli strikes, leadership splits, or nationwide uprisings could still shift dynamics.",
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