Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-april-30

Volume

22.0M

24h volume

821.4K

1w volume

8.8M

Open interest

9.3M

Liquidity

970.2K

Liquidity CLOB

970.2K

Start

Mar 5, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 5, 2026

Event ID

248032

Slug

will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

Reza PahlaviPoliticsIsraelGeopoliticsIranMiddle EastIran Regime
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus implies a 96.8% probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war launched by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28 that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Assembly of Experts swiftly elected a successor—Mojtaba Khamenei—by early March, consolidating power under intensified Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) control despite leadership losses, economic crisis, and 2025-2026 protests fueled by inflation and sanctions. Recent analyses, including Israeli assessments and US intelligence leaks, confirm no signs of imminent collapse, mass desertions, or uncontrolled uprisings, with security forces suppressing dissent. President Trump's April claims of achieved \"regime change\" highlight a harsher IRGC-dominated continuity rather than overthrow. While escalated airstrikes, diplomatic isolation, or internal fractures could theoretically tip balances, the short 24-day window and historical institutional loyalty present significant barriers.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T21:16:38.924Z"
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