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Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Ticker
will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741
Volume
537.1K
24h volume
1.2K
1w volume
51.8K
Open interest
70.8K
Liquidity
39.7K
Liquidity CLOB
39.7K
Start
Jan 13, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 13, 2026
Event ID
162089
Slug
will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"context_description": "U.S. airstrikes on Iran, exceeding 13,000 targets since late February 2026, have devastated 80-90% of Tehran's air defenses, ballistic missile storage, drone factories, and defense-industrial base, yet the regime remains firmly in control amid no ground invasion or direct assaults on leadership. President Trump's repeated pauses—including a recent two-week truce—and focus on air campaigns without boots on the ground underscore limited objectives short of regime change. Collapsed Islamabad peace talks prompted a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz starting April 12, testing economic pressure but eliciting no internal collapse signals. Traders' 90.5% \"Yes\" consensus reflects the regime's resilience to aerial and naval escalation, with historical precedents like past Middle East air wars showing survival absent occupation.",
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}- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Vol 537.1KLiq 37.3KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book