Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Ticker

will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741

Volume

483.2K

24h volume

3.6K

1w volume

36.4K

Open interest

61.1K

Liquidity

49.6K

Liquidity CLOB

49.6K

Start

Jan 13, 2026

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 13, 2026

Event ID

162089

Slug

will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741

Markets

1

Tags

GeopoliticsWorldKhameneiIranMiddle EastIsraelPoliticsIran Regime
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices the Iranian regime's survival amid U.S. military strikes at 87.5% \"Yes,\" reflecting its demonstrated resilience despite over five weeks of intense U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since February 28 under Operation Epic Fury. Recent U.S. Central Command footage released hours ago shows precision hits on military targets, including the killing of the IRGC intelligence chief in Tehran yesterday, crippling air defenses, navy, and production facilities while causing blackouts in key areas. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced escalating strikes ahead of a Strait of Hormuz deadline, yet Pentagon assessments indicate depleted high-value targets without ground invasion or internal collapse signals. No verified reports of leadership decapitation or mass unrest sustain high survival odds, though escalation to civilian infrastructure or proxy retaliation could shift dynamics.",
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