Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

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    "context_description": "US trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026 at low odds, with \"No\" at 78.5%, driven by official military denials amid economic pressure tactics. In late January 2026, President Trump declared a national emergency over Cuban threats, intensifying sanctions and an oil blockade via Venezuelan actions, exacerbating Havana's blackouts and prompting Cuban military preparations. However, on March 19, a senior U.S. general explicitly stated no invasion rehearsals or takeover plans, while bilateral talks continue on potential deals. Trump's rhetoric dangles escalation post-Iran operations, but stretched U.S. forces, Russian ties, and diplomatic preferences maintain the status quo of sanctions over military action.",
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