Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Despite heightened US-Cuba tensions following January 2026 US strikes in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro, trader consensus prices an invasion at low risk, with \"No\" at 81.5%. President Trump's subsequent oil blockades, demands for Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel to step down, and warnings that Cuba is \"ready to fall\" have prompted Havana's military drills as a deterrent, but a senior US general confirmed on March 20 no military preparations for invasion, prioritizing sanctions and Guantanamo Bay security. Recent Democratic lawmakers' visits to Cuba urge de-escalatory rhetoric, reinforcing coercive diplomacy over escalation amid historical aversion to costly interventions.",
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