
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ticker
will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025
Volume
14.1M
24h volume
159
1w volume
711.7K
Open interest
85.8K
Liquidity
31.4K
Liquidity CLOB
31.4K
Start
Sep 6, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Sep 6, 2025
Event ID
42365
Slug
will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025
Markets
4
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"context_description": "The United States conducted targeted airstrikes and a special forces raid, Operation Absolute Resolve, on January 3, 2026, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife without deploying ground troops or seeking territorial control, sparking disputes over whether this meets \"invasion\" criteria in prediction markets like Polymarket, which require intent to establish control over territory. An interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez has stabilized amid U.S. sanction relief, culminating in reestablished diplomatic and consular relations announced March 5, 2026, and further normalization confirmed April 4. No escalation signals persist, with focus shifting to economic cooperation on oil and minerals; traders eye potential volatility from global energy shifts or regional instability.",
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