
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ticker
will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025
Volume
14.1M
24h volume
159
1w volume
711.6K
Open interest
85.8K
Liquidity
31.0K
Liquidity CLOB
31.0K
Start
Sep 6, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Sep 6, 2025
Event ID
42365
Slug
will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025
Markets
4
Raw event data
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"context_description": "In early January 2026, the United States executed a targeted military strike in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and establishing oversight of an interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez, sparking Polymarket disputes over whether the action met \"invasion\" criteria for prior markets. Recent de-escalation includes the U.S. lifting long-standing sanctions on Rodríguez on April 1, alongside announcements of normalized diplomatic relations and expanded military coordination to stabilize the transition and rebuild oil infrastructure. No new indications of broader ground invasion or escalation have surfaced, with trader consensus reflecting focus on diplomatic management amid historical maximum-pressure tactics and regional alliance dynamics. Upcoming congressional oversight on operations costs could influence sentiment.",
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}- Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Vol 181.3KLiq 31.0KEnd Mar 31, 2026OpenOrder book
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