Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Ticker

will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025

Volume

14.1M

24h volume

159

1w volume

711.6K

Open interest

85.8K

Liquidity

31.0K

Liquidity CLOB

31.0K

Start

Sep 6, 2025

End

Mar 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Sep 6, 2025

Event ID

42365

Slug

will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025

Markets

4

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "In early January 2026, the United States executed a targeted military strike in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and establishing oversight of an interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez, sparking Polymarket disputes over whether the action met \"invasion\" criteria for prior markets. Recent de-escalation includes the U.S. lifting long-standing sanctions on Rodríguez on April 1, alongside announcements of normalized diplomatic relations and expanded military coordination to stabilize the transition and rebuild oil infrastructure. No new indications of broader ground invasion or escalation have surfaced, with trader consensus reflecting focus on diplomatic management amid historical maximum-pressure tactics and regional alliance dynamics. Upcoming congressional oversight on operations costs could influence sentiment.",
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