Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

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    "context_description": "Recent polls, including the April 8 Washington Post/George Mason University survey showing 53% support versus 44% opposition, alongside a Christopher Newport University poll at 51% yes, underpin trader consensus favoring passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment referendum at over 90% implied probability. Robust early voting turnout—surpassing 2025 gubernatorial levels with over 619,000 ballots cast—signals strong participation in the April 21 special election, potentially benefiting the Democratic-led General Assembly's push to enact a pre-approved congressional map for 2026 midterms before the independent Virginia Redistricting Commission resumes in 2031. National attention and Democratic spending have sustained a slim majority lead, though GOP motivation and undecided voters could still influence the outcome.",
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