Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any official statements, health issues, legal pressures, or impeachment threats indicating early departure. Recent Democratic predictions, such as James Carville's March suggestion of post-midterm resignation amid potential investigations and Gavin Newsom's calls for House control in November 2026, have failed to move markets, viewed as partisan speculation without evidence. Trump remains active, overseeing cabinet changes including Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent dismissal and pressures on DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, signaling control rather than retreat. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely resign absent crisis, with midterms as the next key catalyst.",
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