Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026

Volume

2.8M

24h volume

244

1w volume

68.6K

Open interest

883.2K

Liquidity

61.9K

Liquidity CLOB

61.9K

Start

Oct 24, 2025

End

Nov 3, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Oct 24, 2025

Event ID

64731

Slug

billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward passage of California's 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires' net worth to fund healthcare amid federal cuts, with \"No\" shares trading at 66.5%. Recent opposition has intensified, as Bay Area billionaires including Sergey Brin poured $35 million into counter-initiatives seeking to block or undermine the measure, while six high-profile residents like Larry Page relocated out-of-state by mid-March, potentially costing $25 billion in lost income tax revenue per Hoover Institution analysis. Signature collection lags at around 25% of the 875,000 needed by July's qualification deadline, despite early polls like UC Berkeley's March survey showing majority voter support. Legal challenges citing takings clause violations loom if qualified for the November ballot.",
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