CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

cdc-issues-level-3-warning-by-december-31

Volume

96.3K

24h volume

13

1w volume

1.4K

Open interest

3.0K

Liquidity

1.2K

Liquidity CLOB

1.2K

Start

Jan 19, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 19, 2026

Event ID

174498

Slug

cdc-issues-level-3-warning-by-december-31

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus implies a 54% probability of the CDC issuing a Level 3 \"Reconsider Nonessential Travel\" notice for any disease by year-end, driven by multiple simmering Level 2 alerts, including expanded global poliovirus circulation in over 30 countries (updated March 9, 2026), clade II mpox outbreaks in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), and a new meningococcal disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24). No Level 3 notices are active, reflecting vaccine-preventable dynamics and contained transmission risks so far, but uncertainties persist around epidemiological shifts like rising polio detections or mpox clade Ib spread in Africa, per WHO reports. Key tipping points include travel-linked U.S. cases or case surges in high-traffic destinations; watch CDC notice updates and Africa CDC briefings in coming weeks for resolution catalysts.",
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