Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

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    "context_description": "President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent public addresses at Justice and Development Party (AKP) parliamentary group meetings, including on April 1, underscore his active leadership and have reinforced trader consensus implying an 83.5% probability he remains in office past December 31, 2026. Unconfirmed health rumors from early February reports have dissipated amid these appearances, while AKP solidified its parliamentary majority through opposition defections in January and February. No snap election momentum exists—Erdoğan previously rejected opposition calls—and constitutional provisions schedule the next presidential contest for 2028, barring unforeseen resignation, impeachment, or vacancy triggers, with no current institutional pressures evident.",
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