
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Ticker
iran-nuke-before-2027
Volume
479.1K
24h volume
2.9K
1w volume
31.5K
Open interest
232.0K
Liquidity
54.4K
Liquidity CLOB
54.4K
Start
Nov 13, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 13, 2025
Event ID
79222
Slug
iran-nuke-before-2027
Markets
1
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Recent Israeli airstrikes, including those on April 1 targeting Iranian weapons production sites and fresh impacts near the Bushehr nuclear power plant confirmed by IAEA on April 6 with no radiological release, have disrupted Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs amid the ongoing 2026 conflict. US intelligence's March 2026 worldwide threat assessment states Iran has not decided to weaponize, despite sufficient near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles implying a short breakout time if pursued. Diplomatic efforts, like February Oman talks seeking enrichment limits, combined with sanctions and IAEA safeguards, underpin trader consensus pricing \"No\" at 92%, viewing military pressures and institutional hurdles as formidable barriers to a pre-2027 bomb, though escalation or leadership shifts could alter dynamics.",
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}- Iran Nuke before 2027?Vol 479.1KLiq 55.0KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book