Iran Nuke before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Ticker

iran-nuke-before-2027

Volume

479.1K

24h volume

2.9K

1w volume

31.5K

Open interest

232.0K

Liquidity

54.4K

Liquidity CLOB

54.4K

Start

Nov 13, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 13, 2025

Event ID

79222

Slug

iran-nuke-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Recent Israeli airstrikes, including those on April 1 targeting Iranian weapons production sites and fresh impacts near the Bushehr nuclear power plant confirmed by IAEA on April 6 with no radiological release, have disrupted Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs amid the ongoing 2026 conflict. US intelligence's March 2026 worldwide threat assessment states Iran has not decided to weaponize, despite sufficient near-weapons-grade uranium stockpiles implying a short breakout time if pursued. Diplomatic efforts, like February Oman talks seeking enrichment limits, combined with sanctions and IAEA safeguards, underpin trader consensus pricing \"No\" at 92%, viewing military pressures and institutional hurdles as formidable barriers to a pre-2027 bomb, though escalation or leadership shifts could alter dynamics.",
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