Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a 90% chance against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by the lack of progress on the bipartisan Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act introduced by Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) on March 23. The bill, amending the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing sports event contracts, has advanced no further through Senate committees amid a crowded legislative docket. Recent CFTC guidance (March 12) and an advance notice of proposed rulemaking underscore enhanced oversight rather than bans, while an April 6 federal ruling deemed such contracts \"swaps\" exempt from state laws. With no hearings scheduled before the June 30 resolution and traditional sportsbooks rallying on the news, enactment faces steep procedural hurdles in a divided Congress.",
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