Macron out by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ticker

macron-out-in-2025

Volume

1.9M

24h volume

338

1w volume

50.2K

Open interest

71.3K

Liquidity

40.5K

Liquidity CLOB

40.5K

Start

Jan 3, 2025

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 3, 2025

Event ID

16263

Slug

macron-out-in-2025

Markets

3

Raw event data
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  "slug": "macron-out-in-2025",
  "title": "Macron out by...?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-01-03T19:35:04.095066Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-01-03T19:35:04.095064Z",
  "endDate": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
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  "active": true,
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  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
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  "liquidity": 40530.50465,
  "volume": 1894772.3206979996,
  "openInterest": 71349.436789,
  "createdAt": "2025-01-03T19:28:39.855536Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T22:38:21.977763Z",
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  "negRisk": false,
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      "id": "517231",
      "question": "Macron out in 2025?",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-01-03T19:31:51Z",
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      "question": "Macron out by June 30, 2026?",
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      "endDate": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0275\", \"0.9725\"]",
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      "closed": false,
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      "createdAt": "2025-09-14T21:01:51.751915Z",
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      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
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    {
      "id": "623939",
      "question": "Macron out by October 31, 2025?",
      "conditionId": "0xdc7ff8e7d1bf22e6b9f372b3122bf553ed7bfedebc500e76e61aab35d9ebdb8e",
      "slug": "macron-out-by-october-31-2025",
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      "endDate": "2025-10-31T12:00:00Z",
      "startDate": "2025-10-06T20:49:31.147004Z",
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      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/macron+tight+lip.png",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
      "volume": "205624.507422",
      "active": true,
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      "createdAt": "2025-10-06T20:46:32.644174Z",
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  "tags": [
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      "id": "1378",
      "label": "France",
      "slug": "france",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-21 00:21:54.303+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-21T00:21:54.404Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:46.899395Z",
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      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
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    {
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      "label": "Macron",
      "slug": "macron",
      "createdAt": "2025-01-03T19:28:40.482628Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:22.028419Z",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
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      "id": "101588",
      "label": "2025 Predictions",
      "slug": "2025-predictions",
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      "createdAt": "2024-12-30T20:11:13.144816Z",
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      "id": "100453",
      "label": "resign",
      "slug": "resign",
      "createdAt": "2024-09-12T19:52:49.084783Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:24:02.317936Z",
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  "showAllOutcomes": true,
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "France's hung parliament, resulting from President Emmanuel Macron's 2024 snap legislative elections, continues to fuel political deadlock and reliance on Article 49.3 to pass legislation without a vote, as seen in the 2026 budget's adoption on February 2 after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's government survived dual no-confidence motions from the far left and far right. Macron pledged in his January 1 address to serve his full term until May 2027, rejecting resignation calls amid constitutional barriers to early presidential removal like impeachment for high treason. Recent stability post-budget passage has tempered trader concerns over near-term exit risks before June 30, though persistent low approval ratings and potential future legislative battles or coalition shifts could influence sentiment.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T22:33:00.275Z"
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}