Named storm forms before hurricane season?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no named storm—defined as sustained winds of 39 mph or higher—forming in the Atlantic basin before the official June 1 hurricane season start, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) lack of any monitored tropical disturbances as of early April. Routine Tropical Weather Outlooks remain paused until May 15, underscoring suppressed near-term development amid persistent dry air and moderate wind shear overriding warming sea surface temperatures. While pre-season activity has occurred in recent years (e.g., Tropical Storm Arthur in May 2020), historical rarity and current quiescent conditions support the \"No\" lead. Key shifts could arise from NOAA model ensembles after May 15, tracking potential low-pressure areas in the Caribbean or western Atlantic.",
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