NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025

Volume

1.4M

24h volume

15.9K

1w volume

81.6K

Open interest

194.6K

Liquidity

92.3K

Liquidity CLOB

92.3K

Start

Sep 23, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Sep 23, 2025

Event ID

48930

Slug

nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025

Markets

4

Tags

Trump PresidencyTrumpRussiaGeopoliticsWorldUkraineNATO
Raw event data
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  "title": "NATO x Russia military clash by...?",
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